So, here is my analysis of the trend, based only on my own data. You have all seen my posting of my enrollment data by month before. I think it is worth studying for a moment, assuming it bares any relationship to over all instructor data.
A year ago I posted asking whether the bump we were seeing as a result of Covid19 was temporary or represented a permanent increase. I think it is time we can answer that question. While the pandemic certainly brought new students into the marketplace and increased UFB business, there is also a return to baseline, that baseline being the slope of the growth trend.
I have drawn a line from March 2019 to today. I think this cancels out the temporary boost we say last March-August. You will notice for every year, the data for February and March are very close, almost the same. This is true until last year when March shot up. Now February and March are again almost identical, signaling a stabilization of the data. This data represents about a 50% year over year increase in student enrollments and my revenue numbers are similar. If you just take the February-March data for each year, and ignore and boost we got last year, I think the best prediction is that this trend will continue. It is actually a pretty stable trend over five years.
So, no, we do not continue at the pandemic highs, but we return to a very healthy growth rate of about 50% each year. I'll take it!
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