Prediction for November thru January Sales Increase - Just for Fun
As most of you have been here a while know I track my data pretty closely, particularly the enrollments by month and by course. I have published that graph periodically. You also know that September and October tend to be relatively slow months and there is a significant increase in sales in November and extending through January due to several sales. Now that Udemy has done their IPO and they have a lot of cash to spend to expand the business it will be interesting to see how they invest that in advertising and promotion during the annual sales. We might have a very good three month period.
So... I looked at the previous four years of data for 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 and did an average for the enrollment, first for Sept and Oct, and then for November thru January. If you take the average increases during those two periods you might predict the increase you will see if you take your numbers for Sept and Oct and then increase them by some similar percentage.
2017: 51% increase from Sept-Oct to Nov-Jan
2018: 102%
2019: 74% increase
2020: 29% increase
I think the lower number for 2020 is largely due to the Covid19 effect. So, my prediction is that if you average your enrollments or revenue (they correlate pretty closely) for Sept-Oct and multiply by 150% (a 50% increase) that is not a bad guess as to what you are likely to see in the coming three months. Don't take this prediction too seriously because there are dozens of factors that effect each of our results in addition to the general company wide sales. But, it is fun to have some target prediction.
Comments
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Wise and well informed predictions as always Lawrence - I would be inclined to agree with you, and am also looking forward to see how Udemy invest over the next 6-12 months. This year has certainly been a low one (in comparison to recent years), but experience states that a season of calm always precedes a season of storm!
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@Kain_Ramsay
In another place there has been a lot of discussion as to whether or not the IPO was a "success." It was certainly a success in terms of raising the expected capital. From an investor perspective we won't know for a good while. But, from an instructor perspective I think success will be measured by the effectiveness of their marketing efforts resulting in increased sales. These next three months may be an indicator of what is ahead.What would be nice would be for Gregg to lay out some plans, which I am sure they have, for how the money will be spent. I am not asked for specifics but a general direction - how much to increase UFB, how much to increase ads for the marketplace, etc. It will be interesting to watch.
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Agreed Lawrence, marketing efforts have certainly been quite poor this year, and given this years change in instructor revenue splits, I would certainly like to hope that Gregg has a greater investment plan (with instructors revenues at heart) than what this year has demonstrated so far! UFB however, continues to go from strength to strength to strength! Short term turbulence is always bearable when exciting times are coming up ahead!
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I think mine mirror your experiences @LawrenceMMiller
.100% 2018, 75% 2019, 30% 2020.
I am also thinking around 50% this year.
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I always appreciate your posts @LawrenceMMiller
, I am also working for/hoping for the 50% this year. My income has increased this year after the Covid boost last year so I couldn't be happier.Am hoping they re-focus on the Marketplace.... the Subscription sales for me stand at a whopping .01c so I am not excited about that thought bubble.
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A short additional thought: When I look at my year-over-year increase in revenue (based on last month) the increase was 22% for marketplace revenue. But, it was 55% increase for UFB revenue. I think this clearly reflects Udemy's increased investment in UFB. The problem for the Nov-Jan time period is that the sales that are conducted are not likely to have any effect on UFB sales. They are essentially marketplace promotions. Since more than 60% of my revenue comes from UFB now, it is likely that the BF and other sales will have less impact on my numbers. Just a thought which may not apply to others.
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I love this kind of topic @LawrenceMMiller
! And I have been looking at data from various instructors (including yours), and indeed I saw that there was a 50% increase in November ehan compared to October, on average. In the last year, I had an 80% increase, but this increase was from 35 dollars to 63 dollars. In these 4 days, the dales have been wway below average. I really hope it starts to get momentum in the later days of the month1 -
Hi, brand new instructor here, but on & off Udemy student for years.
QUESTION: I'm trying to find details about these quickly upcoming Nov/Dec/Jan sales Udemy will run on courses- the dates, options for instructors, etc. - I KNOW I saw a message but it's nowhere to be found, that I can find - where do I look? I think it was a pop up notice that then disappeared (didn't realize that at the time), not a message I can revisit?
Help & thanks!
Shannon
Resume Writer/Instructor
Resume Confidence
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Shannon, Udemy does not announce their sales, but... Thanksgiving is Nov 25th, so Black Friday is the 26th. BF sales often start a few days before Thanksgiving and go through the weekend. Then, there is "Cyber Monday" which has become a big sale and that had expanded into a several days beyond.
My advice is don't worry about it. There isn't really anything for you to do other than make sure your course(s) are in good shape and do your own promotion to your own mail list, if you have one.
good luck.
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