As most of you have been here a while know I track my data pretty closely, particularly the enrollments by month and by course. I have published that graph periodically. You also know that September and October tend to be relatively slow months and there is a significant increase in sales in November and extending through January due to several sales. Now that Udemy has done their IPO and they have a lot of cash to spend to expand the business it will be interesting to see how they invest that in advertising and promotion during the annual sales. We might have a very good three month period.
So... I looked at the previous four years of data for 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 and did an average for the enrollment, first for Sept and Oct, and then for November thru January. If you take the average increases during those two periods you might predict the increase you will see if you take your numbers for Sept and Oct and then increase them by some similar percentage.
2017: 51% increase from Sept-Oct to Nov-Jan
2018: 102%
2019: 74% increase
2020: 29% increase
I think the lower number for 2020 is largely due to the Covid19 effect. So, my prediction is that if you average your enrollments or revenue (they correlate pretty closely) for Sept-Oct and multiply by 150% (a 50% increase) that is not a bad guess as to what you are likely to see in the coming three months. Don't take this prediction too seriously because there are dozens of factors that effect each of our results in addition to the general company wide sales. But, it is fun to have some target prediction.
