I am going to say something that is likely to make me very unpopular. All of the calculations being done are not very meaningful because they completely leave out the major factor, the cause, of the change. Of course you can calculate that with the change from 50 to 37% and 25 to 50% you may come out a little better or worse. That's the easy part. It is almost irrelevant because you are not calculating the cost side of the business, only the revenue share side of the business. You are leaving out half of the relevant facts, and that is largely because we do not know those facts. Let me give an example. Let's pretend you are a farmer and your product is bushels of corn. You are the creator. You sell to a chain of stores who place your corn in their store and sell it to customers. We will ignore the middle men, futures contracts and all that to make it simple. Let's imagine that you have costs to produce a bushel of corn. You have a bank loan on the land you use, you buy seed and fertilizer, you buy a tractor and other equipment to plant and harvest the corn, and of course, you have labor. Let us assume that if you add up all of your costs per bushel of corn, the costs come to $5. And, lets assume you have been selling your corn for $10 a bushel. So, you are getting 100% above your costs, or you have a gross margin of 50%. Now, on the other side of the business is the sales and marketing of your corn. Let's assume that the store is able to sell your corn for $20 a bushel. So they are splitting the revenue with you at a 50% rate (like organic sales). But, the store also has costs in addition to the $10 they pay you. They have rent on property, marketing, insurance, transportation costs, and labor. So, from the $20 selling price they have to deduct your $10 plus another (just guessing) $9 for labor, rent, advertising, etc. In the real world retailers have a profit margin of around 2%. To really analyze an adjustment in the percent that the farmer receives and the store receives you MUST know what their relative costs are. Now lets relate this back to Udemy. To produce a course on Udemy, what are our costs? Most importantly is the value of our time and expertise. This varies a lot across instructors given the different expertise and experience. What other costs - camera, lights, software... not much else. In fact our costs are very low and they don't change, with the exception of time responding to students questions. Now, on the Udemy side: they pay for servers or server time; they have hundreds of employees, office rent, and they pay for marketing/advertising costs. Most instructors are assuming a fair division of revenue is 50%, but without understanding the costs or the coming changes to costs. I am not increasing the costs associated with my courses. Udemy, on the other hand, when they increased their take from UFB sales from 50% to 75%, they proceeded to open new offices in Brazil and other countries, and hired hundreds of employees, and advertized the UFB service. Those increased costs were justified by the additional revenue and by the additional 25% share. You may say that I, as an instructor I gave up 25% to pay for the additional investments by UFB. Like all investments it was a gamble. Some instructors walked away claiming it was unfair. I stayed, assumed the risk, and my net revenue increased by 400%. The bottom line is, does your net revenue increase or decrease... but not from a fixed sum, but from the revenue after the investments are made. The premise of the new change is not simply about the percent division of a fixed sum of revenue, which is what everyone has been calculating. That is a small factor in the business equation. The most important factor (and we don't have this information) is that Udemy is going to significantly expand their marketing to TV and other ads to increase total traffic to the site. Their costs, as with UFB, are going to increase. My costs are not going to increase one penny. That is what this is all about. It is about the changes Udemy is making on the cost side of their business. If you or I were going to make an equivalent increase in our costs we would have a different argument. FWIW.
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